Snap Insight: Netanyahu’s ICC arrest warrant sets US and Europe on collision course

SINGAPORE: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s world just shrunk considerably.
The 124 members of the International Criminal Court (ICC), or two-thirds of the world’s countries, are now obliged to arrest Netanyahu on sight after the ICC issued on Thursday (Nov 21) his arrest warrant on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
This is the first time the ICC has issued an arrest warrant against the sitting leader of a West-aligned democratic country.
ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan sought the warrants on charges that Netanyahu – and his former defence minister Yoav Gallant whom he fired earlier this month – allegedly targeted civilians in Gaza and used starvation as a method of war.
The ICC may have just opened a Pandora’s box, adding fresh complications to an already tumultuous geopolitical situation.
Netanyahu and Israel are likely to feel the impact of the warrants far more than Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been wanted by the ICC since 2023 for alleged war crimes in Ukraine.
Israel has more allies than Russia among ICC members that feel obliged to uphold the rule of law by honouring the court’s warrant within their jurisdiction. The ICC has no independent mechanism to enforce the warrants and depends on its members to do so.
Israel’s allies include European Union member states, some of whom continue to sell arms to Israel. They are among a minority of countries where Israeli officials are still welcome.
A host of European officials, including those from Belgium, the Netherlands and France, were quick to acknowledge the warrant and suggest they would arrest the Israelis if the opportunity arose.
Europe honouring the arrest warrants will likely increase Israel’s international isolation and the risk of condemnation as a pariah state.
Israeli reports warned the warrants could lead to a European arms embargo. Some EU members, including Italy and Britain, have already curtailed arms sales to Israel. France has twice barred Israeli companies from participating in defence exhibitions.
The warrants potentially call into question the German government’s recent controversial approval of US$100 million in military exports to Israel. Germany, which has yet to comment on the warrants, submitted to the court in August a legal brief arguing that the ICC had no jurisdiction over Israel regarding the Gaza war.
Not only do the warrants complicate, but they also potentially prevent Netanyahu and Gallant from travelling to Europe.
Furthermore, they will likely make other Israeli officials think twice about visiting Europe. The officials fear that the ICC has issued secret warrants for their arrest or that they could see their freedom of movement restricted by local courts.
Netanyahu could still travel to the United States – which, like Israel, is not an ICC member and is the one country that has condemned the ICC’s actions. On Thursday, the Biden administration said it “fundamentally reject(s) the court’s decision”.
But in theory, the warrants could make any US travel more difficult because his plane could be forced to land in an ICC member state if traversing its airspace.
The warrants could further muddle Europe’s already potentially troubled relations with US president-elect Donald Trump as Republicans and Democrats line up in support of Israel and threaten to sanction the court and its judges and prosecutors.
Trita Parsi, the executive director of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, noted on X: “It is reasonable to expect that once Trump comes in, he will go after the ICC and the ICJ in ways that profoundly damages the multilateral system,” referring also to the International Court of Justice.
Michael Waltz, Trump’s nominee for national security advisor, echoed Netanyahu and Gallant in his response to the court’s move: “You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January” when the president-elect takes office.
South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch Trump supporter, said he would introduce legislation “that puts other countries on notice”. “If you aid and abet the ICC after their action against the State of Israel, you can expect consequences from the United States,” he said.
Netanyahu may see a silver lining at home.
Israelis have rallied behind him in rejection of the ICC move, even though he is a controversial leader whom many blame for Hamas’ Oct 7, 2023 attack and Israel’s failure to free some 100 hostages still held by the group.
Netanyahu will likely use calls by his ultra-nationalist coalition partners to annex the West Bank and administer Gaza in response to the ICC as a licence to delay and sabotage Gaza ceasefire efforts and prolong the war.
Netanyahu “has an overpowering personal interest in the mayhem continuing so as to buy time after the Oct 7 debacle, until people forget or still bigger tragedies occur,” said Dan Perry, a pro-Israel pundit with little regard for the prime minister.
The ICC warrants increase the likelihood Netanyahu will go down in history as the leader whose misguided, self-serving policies damaged the Jewish state the most.
Yet, it may be Israel’s post-Gaza war investigation of the failures that enabled the Hamas attack, rather than the international court, that will hold Netanyahu accountable.
Dr James M Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M Dorsey.